Tracking Europe’s vitality safety: Four classes from the EU’s new vitality offers

2022 has seen nothing wanting a metamorphosis in how EU member states supply their vitality. Together with the European Commission, they launched into an unprecedented effort to scale back their vitality dependence on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

To perceive this shift, ECFR arrange a brand new EU Energy Deals Tracker, which has recognized 56 new vitality offers that EU member states or the European Union itself have signed with third international locations this 12 months. ECFR’s crew of researchers discovered that Italy, Germany, and the European Commission have been probably the most lively gamers: hanging 12, 8, and 9 offers respectively. But 18 out of the 27 member states have signed a minimum of one new deal this 12 months. This kinds a part of a significant step-change compared with the relative stability in provide of earlier years.

Beneath these headlines, 4 key dangers emerge that European policymakers ought to tackle as they work to additional bolster the EU’s vitality safety.

Out with the previous dependence, in with the brand new

Russia’s assault on Ukraine uncovered EU states’ dependence on Russia for fuel by way of policymakers’ restricted room for manoeuvre in responding early on within the battle. As Europeans decouple from Russia and search for new provides, they need to take care to keep away from falling into new vitality dependences.

Our tracker reveals that the EU and member states have up to now assembled a reasonably broad portfolio of recent provides; in different phrases, Europeans are now not placing all their eggs in a single basket. In addition, they’ve began importing rising quantities of liquefied pure fuel (LNG), somewhat than relying totally on pipeline pure fuel. This allows Europeans to faucet into a bigger pool of suppliers.

However, whether or not this interprets into better flexibility will rely upon the nitty-gritty of the brand new offers, that are often not public. Such questions embrace whether or not Germany has dedicated to importing a certain quantity of Qatari fuel, and whether or not LNG suppliers are pressuring Europeans into signing longer-term deals.

Indeed, clear warning indicators are flashing above some partnerships. By investing in a fuel pipeline to import Azeri fuel, and relying closely on Qatar for imports of LNG, Europeans could encounter new constraints in these difficult relationships. And, since they’ve grow to be so depending on securing any possible LNG or gas import for the close to time period, this places them in a supplicant place in direction of the opposite exporters too – together with Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, and even Norway and the United States, which have now changed Russia because the EU’s two fundamental fuel suppliers.

Despite the West’s present unity on Russia and Ukraine, potential frictions are in the pipeline in transatlantic relations – from China coverage, to burden sharing on support to Ukraine, to the EU’s problem in competing with US state support for industries that use inexperienced tech beneath the Inflation Reduction Act package deal. These issues may intensify if a Republican president involves energy in 2025. Anything apart from a short lived elevated reliance on the United States’ “freedom gas” would due to this fact signify a failure to be taught the teachings from over-reliance on unpredictable companions.   

Piecemeal EU unity: The danger of a slip again to (Russian) fuel

The EU’s dedication to wean itself off Russian dependence proved to be sturdy all through 2022. The well-known exception to that is Hungary, which continues to import fuel from Russia regardless of its abhorrent actions in Ukraine. As ECFR’s tracker covers, Hungary has even signed new offers with Gazprom.

However, our researchers additionally uncovered different dangers. A fuel interconnector with neighbouring Greece ought to lastly permit Bulgaria to cease counting on Russian pipeline fuel – however political uncertainty within the nation means it may nonetheless resume this relationship with Russia. Meanwhile, landlocked Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Austria, in addition to industry-intensive Germany, are discovering the transfer to diversify away from Russian fuel notably tough. This is as a result of LNG might be more durable to entry or due to the sheer portions of fuel they require. If such international locations battle to entry ample provides of non-Russian fuels, calls to return to previous practices (together with utilizing current pipelines from Russia) may grow to be more and more widespread. Anti-government protests in Prague are already a warning sign. Much depends upon whether or not Germany can safe sufficient different imports, and if its neighbours can depend on Berlin to not hold all of it for itself.

The alternative prices of the frenzy to new fuel infrastructure

The vitality insecurity going through Europe this 12 months has prompted many member states to speed up some vital infrastructure selections. The offers they and Brussels have concluded with third international locations mirror this. Of the 56 offers that the tracker identifies, 33 have infrastructure implications. For instance, externally, the EU has dedicated to investing within the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline to import main portions of Azeri fuel, whereas a few of the current pipelines (similar to these connecting Algeria to Spain) may require elevated capability to service the rising imports.

In addition, a lot of infrastructure developments inside the EU have taken place. These embrace a newly inaugurated interconnector between Greece and Bulgaria, plans to develop Croatia’s Adria pipeline and to construct a pipeline between Barcelona and Marseille, and new LNG terminals from Germany and France to Ireland and Estonia. These investments in Europe’s vitality infrastructure ought to enhance the EU’s vitality sovereignty by assuring better resilience and higher integration.

The EU’s sturdy give attention to new fuel infrastructure may stymie its future transition away from fossil fuels

However, there will probably be an opportunity-cost into selecting to put money into a lot of this infrastructure. European leaders might have to clarify the implications of their selections to a nervous European public already experiencing value of residing pressures. They might want to take care to not put money into infrastructure that might show out of date or unduly pricey over the long term. With this in thoughts, the EU’s sturdy give attention to new fuel infrastructure may stymie its future transition away from fossil fuels. Businesses and politicians regularly argue that fuel and oil infrastructure constructed now will repay over time as a result of it may be repurposed for hydrogen. But the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of a change to hydrogen is way from confirmed.

Nuclear vitality: A looming return to a heated argument

The function of nuclear energy as a part of the decarbonisation course of has lengthy divided EU member states. Opponents of nuclear energy increase issues across the disposal of nuclear waste, the provision of uncooked supplies, and the reliability of this supply of vitality, which has come to the fore just lately with massive numbers of France’s nuclear reactors closing for upkeep.

However, the fluidity within the vitality image in 2022 seems to be inflicting some member states to rethink their positions. Countries similar to Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands have extended the operation of their nuclear vegetation. Poland has simply chosen an organization to construct the nation’s first nuclear plant, and is contemplating one other. Latvia is discussing a doable funding in nuclear, whereas Sweden is contemplating increasing its nuclear capability. There will possible be extra EU-level discussions about nuclear vitality through the upcoming Swedish EU presidency in spring 2023.

If nuclear energy turns into more and more acceptable and subsidised, this might crowd out a few of the political help and monetary funding into renewables – saying the comeback of a heated debate concerning the relative benefits of those two decarbonisation methods.

European policymakers are presently cautiously optimistic concerning the EU’s potential to make it by way of to spring 2023 with no main disaster. This optimism comes principally from the wholesome degree of fuel storage within the EU, which stands above 95 per cent of capacity based on the International Energy Agency, mixed with the nice and cozy autumn and winter up to now. As ECFR’s Energy Deals Tracker suggests, the problem now’s to organize for the subsequent few winters, and past. There are additionally constructive indicators round member states’ willingness to cooperate additional on constructing vitality sovereignty, and work collectively on the provision facet. The query of how clear member states are ready to be with one another, and with Brussels, concerning the offers they’re making will probably be examined in Council discussions this week with the European Commission’s proposal for higher coordination of fuel purchases.

But the clear want stays for the EU and member states to collectively mirror on the strategic outlook for his or her sustainable vitality safety – each geographically, to keep away from the chance of overdependence on actors with whom relations may probably worsen, and by way of making certain that decarbonisation stays on target. For the latter, they need to double down on private and non-private funding to quickly scale up their low-carbon vitality infrastructure. This will probably be very important to make sure that clear sources rapidly grow to be a viable possibility for a rising share of the European vitality combine.

Economies of scale will probably be very important, and, to capitalise on these, the EU and member states ought to look intently on the minilateral types of cooperation which have just lately sprung up. These embrace the North Sea offshore wind pact agreed by Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium, and its equivalent among the many eight EU Baltic Sea international locations. Such examples may act as kernels from which pan-EU cooperation can develop. The present hostile financial circumstances going through the EU are important – but when the bloc slips from the trail of decarbonisation, the dangers to the EU’s worldwide credibility and the broader world consensus across the Paris local weather settlement are big.

The European Council on Foreign Relations doesn’t take collective positions. ECFR publications solely signify the views of their particular person authors.



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