Send within the Leopards: Why Western allies ought to ship tanks to Ukraine

After months of reluctance, Western allies have introduced that they’ll ship trendy heavy weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces, together with Bradley and Marder infantry preventing autos, Challenger 2 battle tanks, and CV-90 armoured autos. Now the limelight is on the German Leopard 2 battle tank and the American M1 Abrams, and whether or not Western allies are ready to produce them to the Ukrainian military. Pressure is mounting on Germany and the United States to permit the supply of the tanks, which might change the dynamics on the battlefield.

The head of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, has said that the Ukrainian military wants 300 tanks from its Western allies as a way to launch a profitable counter-offensive and to push the Russian military again to the place it was on 23 February 2022. Finland and Poland have declared that they’re prepared to ship Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukrainian front-lines, and different nations may follow suit, however because the producer of the Leopard 2, Germany should first enable its re-export. The presidents of the European Commission and European Council, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, have called for Germany to permit Leopard 2 tanks to be transferred to Ukraine as rapidly as doable. But German officers appear reluctant to approve such a choice, waiting for the US to comply with ship their M1 Abrams tanks first.

Western allies simply have the capabilities to fulfill Zaluzhny’s request for 300 tanks. M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks are the most typical Western battle tanks, and allies have a major variety of them of their stockpiles. Between them, the US and European nations possess greater than 8000 M1 and M1A1 Abrams tanks and 2000 Leopard 2s. Most Leopard 2 tanks are in service in Germany (321 plus over 200 in storage), Greece (353), Spain (327), Turkey (316), Poland (247), and Finland (100 plus 100 in storage), whereas the US possesses nearly all of the M1 Abrams tanks. Three hundred tanks quantity to only over 3 per cent of US and European NATO members’ provides of those fashions alone. Given how prolific these tanks are, they need to and doubtless will develop into the premise of additional assist for Ukraine.

It appears unlikely that the tanks would provoke Russia, however they’d give Ukraine an opportunity to resist the rising strain on its front-lines.

Some countries concern that supplying Ukraine with tanks could be crossing a ‘crimson line’ which will provoke additional escalation by Russia. However, Western allies have already despatched lots of of tanks to Ukraine. For instance, Poland alone has provided the Ukrainian armed forces with 260 T-72 tanks of varied variations. This didn’t result in escalation by Russia or draw Poland immediately into the struggle. The Russian military commonly will increase the depth of its offensive, and its choices to take action usually are not linked to the West offering Ukraine with new weapons. Moscow will proceed to ramp up its mobilisation efforts and improve the dimensions of its military no matter whether or not Ukraine receives the trendy battle tanks. If Germany is worried that Russia will declare it’s party to the struggle if it sends its tanks to Ukraine, it shouldn’t cease different NATO members who don’t share these fears from deploying their models. It appears unlikely that the tanks would provoke Russia, however they’d give Ukraine an opportunity to resist the rising strain on its front-lines.

The Leopard 2 tanks must be the principle precedence for a number of causes. Firstly, Ukrainian troopers would wish much less coaching to make use of the Leopard 2 than the M1 Abrams. Secondly, the jet engines of the M1 Abrams require rather more propellant than the Leopard 2 does, so the Ukrainian armed forces and its allies would wish to enhance gas supply logistics to maintain the M1 Abrams tanks operating. European nations even have higher logistics and technical capabilities for repairing and servicing Leopard 2 battle tanks, which means they might extra simply and rapidly restore broken tanks and return them to the front-lines. Furthermore, a number of nations are able to ship their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as quickly as Germany provides permission, whereas the US willingness to ship the M1 Abrams is much less clear. Finally, the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine could encourage the US to begin delivering M1 Abrams, signalling to Washington that European allies are ready to be extra energetic in supplying Ukraine with weapons and that the Ukrainian armed forces can effectively use such costly trendy offensive heavy weapons. This could be important, as with over 8000 M1 Abrams tanks, the US might present a gradual provide of tanks to Ukraine.

Western allies can provide sufficient trendy battle tanks for the Ukrainian armed forces to launch a profitable counter-offensive. But they should act rapidly: coaching Ukrainian troopers to make use of Leopard 2s will take not less than one month – and even longer for the M1 Abrams. If the choice to ship the tanks is made within the subsequent few weeks, Ukraine might start a major counter-offensive in spring. Meanwhile, Russia is utilizing the present pause from offensive operations to re-equip its forces with each weapons and newly mobilised troopers. There is a excessive probability that Moscow will renew its offensive within the coming months. Ukraine must be prepared to resist this strain and launch new counter-offensive operations. Modern battle tanks would enable them to take action and will profoundly change the course of the struggle.

The European Council on Foreign Relations doesn’t take collective positions. ECFR publications solely signify the views of their particular person authors.



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