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It’s lengthy been stated that Congress is rather a lot like college.
What’s the very first thing they do in class? Take attendance.
That is one factor which they often don’t do in Congress.
But they could subsequent yr.
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Figuring out who’s current and accounted for and who’s out will emerge as some of the dramatic each day occasions on Capitol Hill.
It is at all times in regards to the math on Capitol Hill.
But the 119th Congress will actually be in regards to the math.
Every day within the House will hinge on who’s sick. Who has a dad or mum/teacher convention. Whose airplane was delayed resulting from snow. Who is simply enjoying hooky and isn’t dependable. Who was giving a speech downtown, received caught in visitors and simply didn’t make it again in time. Whose child is starring within the college play. Whose aunt died.
President Trump and House Republicans have massive plans for his or her 2025 legislative agenda. But the miniscule dimension of the GOP majority might mood these expectations every day.
It shall be attention-grabbing to see what Republicans can execute.
Republicans will doubtless start the brand new yr with a 219-215 majority. So 434 seats. There is one emptiness as former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned. That’s a margin of 4 seats. But it in actuality, it means the GOP majority can solely tolerate one Republican defector on every roll name vote without having assist from the opposite aspect. One Republican “nay” is 218-216. But two Republican rebels produces a 217-217 tie. By rule, ties lose within the House.
But the start of the brand new Congress on January 3 might symbolize the Halycon days for the House Republican Conference.
Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., intend to resign in January to affix the Trump Administration. Stefanik is up for United Nations Ambassador and requires affirmation for that put up. The President-elect tapped Waltz to function National Security Advisor. That place just isn’t topic to Senate affirmation. So the Republican majority will dwindle to 217-215. At that time, Republicans can’t lose any votes to cross their agenda.
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That is an issue for House Republicans who often had a squadron of defectors – starting from protecting the federal government open to even impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This might even spell issues for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., returning to the Speaker’s suite. Johnson should win an outright majority of all House members voting when the brand new Congress convenes on January 3 to turn into Speaker. He’ll have a little bit of a cushion when the brand new Congress begins. But it gained’t be a lot. House Republicans nonetheless undergo from political PTSD after the 15 rounds it took to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., early final yr.
Yes. There shall be particular elections to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has already known as a particular election for the Gaetz seat for April 1.
You can’t make these items up.
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) waves on stage on the third day of the Republican National Convention on the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)
The different particular elections are months away as a result of Stefanik and Waltz haven’t resigned but. In reality, if Stefanik is confirmed and resigns in late January, it might be May earlier than there’s a particular election in her seat – based mostly on New York legislation and discretion afforded New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).
The ends in particular elections typically produce “particular” outcomes. The typical citizens periodically stays dwelling and the alternative party captures these seats in off-cycle elections. So, regardless that these are “Republican” seats, there’s no assure that Republicans will mechanically prevail.
But if issues go in accordance with plan, Republicans could have these seats again in just a few months, with a relatively strong 220-215 majority. That means Republicans can lose as much as two votes on any main concern.
But there are at all times absences. Always resignations.
And this isn’t restricted to the Republican aspect of the aisle.
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There have lengthy been considerations in regards to the well being and attendance of 79-year-old Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the highest Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. Scott confronted criticism earlier this yr over a scarcity of public appearances and interviews.
76-year-old Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., is the highest Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva vowed that this time period could be his final after affected by most cancers. The sickness sidelined Grijalva for months. He missed greater than 300 roll name votes on the ground between February and this fall and didn’t conduct interviews.
Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Bill Pascrell, D-N.J. and Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., had been all in workplace after they handed away this yr. Late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died in 2023.
Democrats make a whole lot of noise proper now in regards to the agenda of President-elect Trump. It shall be incumbent on Democrats to have full attendance to oppose Republicans and usually make life depressing for almost all. But Democrats can solely do this in the event that they present up. All the time.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., conducts his weekly information convention within the Capitol Visitor Center on Thursday, May 23, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc through Getty Images)
Such was the case when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., had the votes of each House Democrat on every roll name for Speaker in January and October of final yr. Only Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed a few votes as a result of he underwent a surgical process. But Trone returned to Capitol Hill later that night to vote.
Rep. Al Green, D-Tex., was hospitalized this previous February. But Green got here to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February to assist torpedo the preliminary effort to question Mayorkas. Republicans had three defectors on their aspect. Green’s vote recent from a hospital gurney compelled the GOP effort to fail on the ground and check out once more.
One issue which was a problem for the GOP was the well being of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was recognized with most cancers final yr and was out the primary a part of 2023. Scalise has now recovered. But his absence hamstrung the GOP on massive votes just like the preliminary Mayorkas impeachment.
Unfortunately – and inevitably – there shall be absences resulting from well being. And God forbid, demise. Rarely does a Congress cross with out the demise of a lawmaker – typically unexpected. Late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides died in a visitors accident throughout the summer season of 2022.
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So pay attention for the attendance bells within the House subsequent yr. Check the climate forecast and the flight schedule at Reagan National Airport. Better have a look at Waze in the event that they’re flying into Dulles. See if the flu or one other spherical of COVID burns by Congress.
Yes. Understanding whether or not somebody is for or in opposition to a given invoice or modification is at all times vital in Congress. But what supersedes that’s whether or not they’re truly current.
