The looming finish to the Polish authorities’s rule of regulation dispute with the European Commission casts relations between Warsaw and Brussels in a brand new mild. If Warsaw succeeds in shedding this political burden, it may acquire a stronger place within the European Union than at any time within the final decade. However, this new place may additionally change into an phantasm – if Warsaw merely reignites spats with Brussels and different EU capitals, hoping to enchantment to its home viewers.
According to Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, “within the early phases of the warfare, nations in central and jap Europe felt vindicated of their previous hawkishness in direction of Russia, and have grown in confidence and energy inside the EU”. But the general public opinion ballot they reference reveals that the image is shifting. Now, many European residents need ‘peace’ as quickly as potential, even when because of this Ukraine must make concessions. Therefore, nations akin to Poland – the place most residents as a substitute prioritise ‘justice’ for Ukraine, even when this implies extra Ukrainians are killed and displaced – may discover themselves marginalised.
Faced with rising power prices, steep will increase within the value of shopper items, and the prospect of recession, European voters – particularly these in nations removed from Russia and Ukraine – may quickly be much more inclined to favour peace over justice. And European leaders – who, till now, have usually taken a surprisingly laborious line on President Vladimir Putin – might begin yielding to that opinion.
The threat for Poland shouldn’t be merely that its affect on Europe’s Ukraine and Russia coverage may wane. It can be that the disconnect between the perceptions of residents in Poland and people in western and southern European states may revive historic resentments in Poland, degenerate into Euroscepticism, and result in political self-isolation. Paradoxically, this might occur on the very second at which Poland has a novel likelihood of escaping the EU doghouse.
There are already some worrying indicators of such a flip of occasions. Among the ten nations polled by ECFR, Poland is the one one during which the prevailing view is that Germany and France are pleasant to Putin. As the chart under reveals, 50 per cent of Poles understand Germany in that manner. The common in different nations is simply 18 per cent. Similarly, 40 per cent of the Polish public see France as pleasant to Putin, in comparison with a mere 17 per cent elsewhere.
But this doesn’t imply Poles are solely crucial of western Europe. They are much more suspicious of Hungary, with 61 per cent believing that Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s nation is pleasant to Russia. This is a better proportion than in some other nation polled. On common, simply 34 per cent of respondents within the different 9 nations reproach Budapest for cosying as much as Moscow.
Perhaps much more strikingly, on these points, there are smaller variations of opinion between Poles throughout the political spectrum than between Poles and different Europeans. To ensure, supporters of Law and Justice (PiS), the nationalist party that guidelines Poland, are extra doubtless than supporters of the liberal Civic Coalition (KO) or the Left (Lewica) to assume that Berlin and Paris are too cosy with Moscow. But they’re nonetheless extra more likely to see Germany or France as pleasant to Putin than supporters of some other main party within the ten nations polled.
Interestingly, Orban is seen as pleasant to Russia not simply by a majority of Poland’s opposition voters but in addition by 62 per cent of Law and Justice supporters – for whom he as soon as served as an inspiration. Therefore, whereas Law and Justice chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski should have a tactical alliance with Orban on EU affairs, their relationship not goes any additional than that. Law and Justice supporters have largely internalised their leaders’ disappointment with Hungary’s place on Ukraine. Their infatuation with Orban appears to be over.
Finally, Poland’s desire for justice over peace – which makes it a European outlier – is shared by Law and Justice and opposition voters alike. This differentiates the whole lot of Poland, reasonably than simply the Polish authorities, from western European nations.
But there’s a high-quality line between being proper and being self-righteous. And even being proper is usually not sufficient to make an impression.
Up to now, the Polish authorities has sailed gallantly on a rising tide of ethical superiority in direction of its Western companions, in sharp distinction to the years of criticism it obtained for failing to fulfill European requirements. Warsaw has discovered itself on the suitable aspect of historical past – and has made this felt in different EU capitals. Poland’s deputy international minister informed the German chancellor that “talking to Putin is completely pointless”, whereas Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki mocked French President Emmanuel Macron’s cellphone calls with Putin, saying that “nobody negotiated with Hitler”. For many causes, criticism of the Franco-German response to the warfare is justified and vital. And the voice of the Polish individuals and their authorities holds extra sway than maybe ever earlier than. That is exactly why it’s so vital for Poland’s leaders to decide on their arguments and tone fastidiously.
Yet Kaczynski and Morawiecki appear to overlook, or no less than underestimate, the profound shift in attitudes in direction of Russia and insurance policies on the nation that’s beneath manner in France, Italy, and Germany. Poland ought to guarantee it’s a constructive contributor to that growth. Poland can’t create a coherent and efficient Russia coverage for the EU solely in alliance with the Baltic nations or the Czech Republic – with all due respect to them.
Warsaw is in a uniquely robust place to launch a new EU initiative for jap Europe – simply because it was when it initiated the Eastern Partnership with Sweden in 2007. But, if the Polish authorities comes up with a concrete and impressive plan, it can nonetheless want the assist of influential allies within the EU. This would require not solely ethical justifications – however, above all, laborious political work and the belief of Poland’s companions.
Polish leaders didn’t be part of their French, German, Italian, and Romanian counterparts on a latest go to to Kyiv. And they appear to spend extra time criticising Germany’s and France’s makes an attempt at solidarity with Ukraine than cooperating with Berlin and Paris to form the EU’s jap coverage. The Law and Justice party might discover these divisions helpful in home politics. But they do little to guard Poland’s strategic pursuits.
The European Council on Foreign Relations doesn’t take collective positions. ECFR publications solely signify the views of their particular person authors.